Base Case Rationale (€103B, +8.5% upside)
- • 3.5% revenue CAGR assumes modest organic growth + small M&A
- • 17.5% EBIT margin target reflects productivity savings offsetting mix pressure
- • 7.8% WACC reflects low-beta defensive profile + moderate leverage
- • 2.0% terminal growth in line with global GDP + category maturity
Bull Case Catalysts (€137B, +44% upside)
- • Prestige beauty acquisition drives 5% revenue CAGR
- • Margin expansion to 19% from premiumization + cost discipline
- • Multiple expansion from ESG leadership + portfolio quality
Bear Case Risks (€77B, -19% downside)
- • Volume declines from consumer downtrading in developed markets
- • Margin compression from commodity inflation + FX headwinds
- • Higher WACC from increased leverage or execution missteps