Macro Risk Analysis

Macroeconomic exposure and mitigation strategies

100% COVERAGE• HIGH

Turkey Inflation

44.4%

-20.4%

Policy Rate

50%

+5.0%

USD/TRY

34.12

+16.2%

GDP Growth

3.2%

-1.3%

CPI Index

2860

0.0%

Turkey: Inflation & Policy Rate

USD/TRY Exchange Rate

CPI Index Evolution

Macro Risk Matrix

FX RiskHIGH

Impact: €800M annual revenue exposure to TRY depreciation

Mitigation: Natural hedging via local sourcing, dynamic pricing, FX forwards

Inflation RiskHIGH

Impact: Input cost inflation averaging 45% in Turkey vs 5% globally

Mitigation: Pricing power, productivity program, supplier diversification

Political RiskMEDIUM

Impact: Regulatory uncertainty on price controls, capital controls risk

Mitigation: Local partnerships, government relations, scenario planning

Consumer RiskMEDIUM

Impact: Volume declines from downtrading, purchasing power erosion

Mitigation: Portfolio optimization, value tier expansion, local brands

Macro Risk Assessment

Turkey Exposure (High Risk)

• Turkey represents ~3% of group revenue (~€1.8B) but outsized risk profile
• Hyperinflation environment: 64.8% inflation in 2023, 44.4% in 2024 (still elevated)
• TRY depreciation: 6x weaker vs USD since 2019 (5.68 → 34.12)
• Policy uncertainty: Central Bank rate hikes to 50% attempting to stabilize

Broader EM Headwinds

• 57% of revenue from emerging markets exposed to FX volatility
• Rising rates globally pressuring consumer purchasing power
• Commodity inflation (palm oil, petrochemicals) impacting input costs
• Geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains (Ukraine, Middle East)

Mitigation Strategy

• Dynamic pricing: pass-through input cost inflation while maintaining volume
• Local sourcing: natural hedging by producing locally for local consumption
• FX hedging: selective use of forwards for committed exposures
• Portfolio optimization: shift mix toward resilient categories and geographies

Macro Risk Analysis

Macroeconomic exposure and mitigation strategies

100% COVERAGE• HIGH

Turkey Inflation

44.4%

-20.4%

Policy Rate

50%

+5.0%

USD/TRY

34.12

+16.2%

GDP Growth

3.2%

-1.3%

CPI Index

2860

0.0%

Turkey: Inflation & Policy Rate

USD/TRY Exchange Rate

CPI Index Evolution

Macro Risk Matrix

FX RiskHIGH

Impact: €800M annual revenue exposure to TRY depreciation

Mitigation: Natural hedging via local sourcing, dynamic pricing, FX forwards

Inflation RiskHIGH

Impact: Input cost inflation averaging 45% in Turkey vs 5% globally

Mitigation: Pricing power, productivity program, supplier diversification

Political RiskMEDIUM

Impact: Regulatory uncertainty on price controls, capital controls risk

Mitigation: Local partnerships, government relations, scenario planning

Consumer RiskMEDIUM

Impact: Volume declines from downtrading, purchasing power erosion

Mitigation: Portfolio optimization, value tier expansion, local brands

Macro Risk Assessment

Turkey Exposure (High Risk)

• Turkey represents ~3% of group revenue (~€1.8B) but outsized risk profile
• Hyperinflation environment: 64.8% inflation in 2023, 44.4% in 2024 (still elevated)
• TRY depreciation: 6x weaker vs USD since 2019 (5.68 → 34.12)
• Policy uncertainty: Central Bank rate hikes to 50% attempting to stabilize

Broader EM Headwinds

• 57% of revenue from emerging markets exposed to FX volatility
• Rising rates globally pressuring consumer purchasing power
• Commodity inflation (palm oil, petrochemicals) impacting input costs
• Geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains (Ukraine, Middle East)

Mitigation Strategy

• Dynamic pricing: pass-through input cost inflation while maintaining volume
• Local sourcing: natural hedging by producing locally for local consumption
• FX hedging: selective use of forwards for committed exposures
• Portfolio optimization: shift mix toward resilient categories and geographies

Intelligence Console

Macro Risk Analysis

Turkey: Inflation & Policy Rate

USD/TRY Exchange Rate

CPI Index Evolution

Macro Risk Matrix

Macro Risk Assessment

Macro Risk Analysis

Turkey: Inflation & Policy Rate

USD/TRY Exchange Rate

CPI Index Evolution

Macro Risk Matrix

Macro Risk Assessment